A clear departure from its regular diplomatic tradition, Kenya has, on Sunday, Oct. 16, sent its armed forces, equipped with over 30 tanks and trucks, deep into Somalia with a mission to root out Al-Shabab. The army has since marched over 120 km and has secured about four towns.
The government of Kenya has not yet made clear its strategy to start, escalate and wind up this war. As a result, it’s difficult, at this moment, to measure and by extension to analyze the scope and the duration of this military operation.
Top government officials explained that the army is “in hot pursuit of Al-Shabab,” an enemy which threatened Kenya’s $750 million tourism industry by abducting visitors.
Al-Shabab has denied any kidnappings allegation and no evidence of direct connection exists so far.
Nonetheless, the regional implications of this war may be catastrophic to both nations.
On one hand, War is not a party where people go to sip coffee or bite a juicy cake. The cost of war is immeasurable. It’s real bloody. There’s loss of lives, there are casualties and there’s collateral damage, not to mention the aftermath psychological trauma and environmental degradation.
Already loss of lives occurred before there’s any military face-off. Five Kenyan servicemen died when their helicopter crashed at the border town of Liboi.
Additionally, reprisal attacks can occur in Kenya’s heartland. Al-Shabab has threatened suicide attacks unless Kenya withdraws its troops. I’m not a prophet of doom but the writing is on the wall if July 2010 Kampala bombing is anything to go by.
The Somali nation still mourns Al-Shabab’s Oct. 4 blasts of a ministry of education building in Mogadishu where over a hundred people died and hundreds of others wounded.
Another consideration may be the real cost of war on Kenyan taxpayers and on the economy of their country. For instance, the U.S wars in Afghanistan and Iraq have, to a large extent, undermined its economic standing in the world.
In other words, increased military spending takes gigantic amounts of resources away from public spending on education, healthcare and infrastructure. Closed as the military budgeting and oversight may be, avenues for corruption may open up as well.
Also, Kenya has been a restive economic hub in a region notorious for chaos. But that image may soon change. Kenya’s involvement in war and the likelihood of reprisal attacks may scare away the confidence of investors and affect all sectors of the economy not just tourism.
On the other hand, this war is, in essence, a breach of international law. It violates the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Somalia, a neighboring state.
Further, lack of clear military mandate and with no international oversight means that widespread cases of rape, human rights abuses, further destabilization of the already fragile security situation and an exacerbation of the humanitarian crisis currently unfolding in Somalia may be in the making.
The kidnappings, the proclaimed cause of this invasion, must be treated as criminal acts and the perpetrators pursued, arrested and prosecuted in a court of law to answer for their crimes.
Crimes committed by a few individuals should never be a justification to go to full-scale war with long term socio- economic and geo-political implications for the two neighboring states.
While the overwhelming majority of Somalis support the removal of Al-Shabab yet how that should occur is another thing. In fact, Somalis are extremely averse to foreign incursions. U.S Operations of early 90’s and Ethiopia’s invasion five years ago all ended unsuccessfully despite the mismatch in intelligence, military training, and equipment.
The pursuit to fight Al-Shabab, though noble, might finally be a futile exercise. Chances of Al-Shabab standing up against an organized, conventional military with a better command of the air are slim. They have shown, in the past, an ability to melt down among civilian populations and remerge as a hit-and-run force capable of causing enormous damage to personnel and installations.
And such a tactic may provoke indiscriminate shelling of civilians by Kenyan army, an act that will work in Al-Shabab’s favor by fuelling local resentments against the invading army. If so happens, Kenya’s Linda Nchi mission will be not more than a pursuit dead at the start.
It’s no secret that Kenya has been under external pressure to show its military might in the wake of successive kidnappings of tourists and aid workers. Bolder foreign policy doesn’t have to involve waging wars on foreign soil. Rather, strengthened policing capacity in its homeland and a beefed-up border security may help.
Finally, media personalities must be cautious in beating the drum of war and in presenting it as a romantic encounter to the public. Remember war is not an evening at a movie theater.
Author's contact: ahmednajaah@hotmail.com
